As President Donald Trump continues solidifying his grip on power and Republicans continue letting him get away with breaking laws and violating the Constitution, a senior defense analyst and genocide expert is warning that the signs of an impending genocide exist in the United States.
Brynn Tannehill has studied genocides around the world for decades, and while many Americans insist that genocide could not possibly happen here in the “land of the free,” she is convinced that it’s on the verge of happening because of Trump and his Republican enablers.
On Thursday, she explained on Twitter the signs that currently exist, and the signs that are likely to follow.
I study genocide. It’s been a theme in my academic endeavours for nearly 30 years. More accurately, I study the conditions in the lead up to genocide, be they cultural, social, political, economic, etc… 1/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
There’s common themes and patterns. Usually it happens in an economically distressed country with falling standards of living for most people. Rising infant mortality is a good indicator variable. 2/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
According to the statistics, infant mortality in the United States is on the rise and is now on par with less developed countries like Serbia, which failed to prevent genocide in Bosnia between 1992-1995 when Serbian forces there murdered 8,000 in an extermination campaign against Bosnian Muslims.
The politicians enacting it are populists who benefit from stirring Us vs. Them narratives, placing blame for the woes of the nation on others who are somehow less worthy. They yearn for a mythological past w/o these people. It’s a highly viable tactic for shoring up support 3/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
The “others” are labeled as criminals, perverts, threats to women and children, disgusting, and generally unworthy of empathy. Anyone who supports the vulnerable minority is attacked with, “So you support the horrible things these degenerates do?” 4/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Indeed, Trump and Republicans have repeatedly attempted to vilify Muslims and immigrants, accusing them of being terrorists and criminals.
This effectively undercuts anyone from speaking out, for fear of being labeled as sympathetic to a parade of horribles.
The government also modifies the courts to ensure they will not block actions they take. 5/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
This is where Trump’s court-packing scheme comes in as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) jams his unqualified judicial appointees through the confirmation process to ensure conservatives dominate the courts.
Once control of the courts is established, Trump and his cronies can break the law with impunity without consequence because all of his judges will agree with him that he isn’t breaking any laws, paving the way for the most flagrant of violations, including mass murder.
In the 20th and 21st century, genocide rarely goes from zero to all out slaughter in the blink of an eye. Even in Rwanda, the anti-Tutsi propaganda started in earnest in 1990. The plan for the slaughter began taking shape in 1992. Preparation began over a year ahead. 6/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
In countries where there is still something resembling a functional (ostensibly) elected government, the phases are slower. First, there’s the propaganda, supported by things like government reporting of the crimes committed by the people they target. 7/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Then there’s public safety measures. Removing them from the military, and from federal service. Revoking clearances. Egging on stochastic intimidation and violence and failing to prosecute people who commit it. 8/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Revoking basic civil rights once you have the courts in place to allow (or enact) it comes next. Establishing that the target group has less civil rights than every other member of the population, even de facto, adds legitimacy to what comes next. 9/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Trump and Republicans frequently defend white nationalists and ignore their violent crimes, but have rushed to highlight and condemn even the most minor act of violence by a person of color or an immigrant.
Republicans long for a return to the Jim Crow era when segregation was in full swing and minorities lacked basic civil rights. They have even begun arguing that discrimination is legal and have deported American soldiers who were brought to the United States by their parents illegally.
All of this sets up the next steps, some of which are already happening.
Now that there’s second class status, you can keep them out of the education system and deny them access to health care. Jobs are scarce. You can create vast zones where the minority is forbidden from public life. Make them carry/wear IDs identifying them as “other” 10/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
(If this sounds familiar, the Germans modeled their 1930’s laws on those used to keep the US South segregated.)
Police harass and target the minority, and they are often arrested and abused with little reason. People disappear into the system. The goal of this is two fold 11/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Police already use disproportionate violence against minorities and frequently harass them compared to the way they treat white people. And Trump has already proposed forcing Muslim Americans to wear a a symbol identifying them similar to the way the Nazis forced Jews to wear the Star of David.
And Trump has already been working on normalizing his behavior and activities, which gets the public used to it before the next steps begin.
First is to get the public inured to these abuses. People disappear all the time, right?
Second, and this is where genocide actually starts, is to get people to actually voluntarily pack up and leave the country, or actively hide who they are. 12/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
This is the beginnings of cultural genocide: the minority disappears from the culture because they have either left, or have gone underground.
At the same time, the government is testing the world community to see how they react to other outrages. 13/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Whether it’s acts of military aggression, bellicose leaders, assassinating journalists, putting foreign nationals in filthy over crowded camps that are black holes; the country on the verge of genocide is looking to see if they can provoke a reaction. It almost never comes 14/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
Thus far, Trump has referred to the press as the “enemy of the people” and has endorsed Saudi Arabia’s killing of a Washington Post journalist. Tens of thousands of migrant children are locked in camps on the border and are suffering inhumane treatment. Some have died.
In part, because the groups targeted are ones that other countries simply don’t care about either. Jews, Tutsis, gays, Roma, South Sudanese, the disabled, mentally ill, poverty stricken immigrants; they historically aren’t worth starting a fight over. 15/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
At some point, the government determines or realizes that no one will intervene, and that there’s no additional consequences to moving to the next steps: where they move to planning on how to get rid of the targeted population. 16/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
How they carry out mass killing is irrelevant, in the sense that it’s way too late to do anything by this point, and that it doesn’t follow a pattern. Sometimes it’s camps and neglect. Guns. Machetes. Killing fields. Death marches. Sometimes it’s all of the above. 17/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
What is interesting to me is watching for the warning signs
* Rising infant mortality
* Demonizing government propaganda
* Us v. Them narrative
* Mythological past free of a minority
* Populist government
* Breakdown of democratic norms
* Politicized court beholden to party 18/n— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
* Removing minority from federal service
* Legally establishing that minority doesn’t have same rights as everyone else
* Encouraging stochastic violence
* Preventing access to health care system
* Preventing access to education 19/n— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
* Mandatory segregation from general population under penalty of law
* Requiring something that outs people as the minority (ID, worn item, name, etc)
* Random arrests
* Indefinite “black hole” detentions
* Testing to see if foreign governments will move to stop abuses 20/n— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
* Minority groups fleeing the country.
However, if you’re seeing these last two, it’s probably already too late. I can’t think of a time the world cut off a genocide at the pass, and global sentiment against refugees (SS St. Louis) means few escape. 21/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
In fact, Tannehill is so worried about an impending genocide based on the signs that her and her family plan to flee the country to Canada before it’s too late and says all Americans should be worried.
Are you worried yet? You probably should be.
Because I am very, very worried. I am not saying it will definitely happen, but the necessary conditions are there, and many of the precursor events are in motion. 22/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
My spouse and our kids are Canadian.
We’re laying the groundwork to go back there in 2021, even if I don’t have a job waiting. 23/n
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
If Trump should win a second term, genocide could be even more likely, especially if he moves to become president for life as he has repeatedly mused.
Even if Trump loses the election, he is likely to declare the results fraudulent and resist a hand over of power. He has “joked” about it, but his “jokes” are usually a reflection of his true thinking.
I have no idea what happens after that. The GOP is so close to permanent rule
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) January 23, 2020
This next election is not just a fight for the future, it’s a fight for our lives. And no American should assume that it can’t possibly happen to them. As German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller warned in a poem about the atrocities committed by the Nazis:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
It’s time for all Americans to speak out.
Featured Image: Wikimedia
