Despite the national shutdown brought about by fear over the coronavirus pandemic which has paralyzed the United States and world, three states will conduct primaries today: Arizona, Florida, and Illinois. But will anyone actually show up to vote? And if they do, what can we expect when the votes are counted?
Arizona (67 pledged delegates)
Though there isn’t a great deal of polling data out of Arizona, the polls we do have show former Vice President and Democratic front-runner Joe Biden ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders.
FiveThirtyEight has looked at several recent polls out of the Grand Canyon State, and Biden is leading in all of them:
“In Arizona, Swayable found Biden ahead of Sanders by 24 points, 53 percent to 29 percent, a margin that didn’t really change because of house effects. Meanwhile, NBC News/Marist College’s survey found Biden up just 17 points over Sanders. But Marist has been a bit friendlier to Sanders than some other pollsters, so after adjusting for house effects, the model treated this poll as Biden ahead by 20 points.”
Florida (219 pledged delegates)
Florida is the big prize in Tuesday’s contests, with a gigantic delegate haul. And polling from the Sunshine State suggests a massive win by Biden:
“The final looks at the Florida contest come from Swayable and AtlasIntel, which both found Biden way up. Swayable’s survey showed Biden leading Sanders by 39 points, 64 percent to 25 percent. AtlasIntel’s poll similarly found Biden up 40 points, 67 percent to 27 percent. And after adjusting for the pollster’s house effects, or the tendency for a pollster to consistently poll better or worse for one candidate, the model treated the AtlasIntel survey as a 43-point lead for Biden.”
A big win in Florida could put Biden so far in front of the delegate race that Sanders will never be able to catch up. Biden currently holds a lead of 154 delegates, with the count standing at 890 for the former VP and 736 for the Vermont senator.
Illinois (155 pledged delegates)
Just as in Arizona and Florida, polling indicates that Illinois will also be a win for Biden:
“Swayable also took a final look and found Biden leading Sanders by 34 points, 63 percent to 29 percent, which didn’t change much after adjusting for house effects. Emerson College found Biden up by 21 points over Sanders, 57 percent to 36 percent, but after adjusting for Emerson’s pro-Sanders lean, the model treated Biden as up by 25 points in this poll.”
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