The 2020 election is now less than six months away, and many Republicans — especially those in key battleground states — are getting worried that voters will make the election a referendum on President Donald Trump, which could well lead to massive losses for the GOP up and down the ballot, according to a report from Politico:
“Interviews with nearly a dozen former governors, members of Congress, and other current and former party leaders revealed widespread apprehension about Trump’s standing six months out from the election.
“Many fret that Trump’s hopes are now hitched to the pandemic; others point to demographic changes in once-reliably red states and to the challenge of running against a hard-to-define Democratic opponent who appeals to a wide swath of voters. The concerns give voice to an assortment of recent battleground state polling showing Trump struggling against Biden.”
Among the states most likely to flip from voting for Trump in 2016 to casting a ballot for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Georgia is trending blue, and could well wind up going for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since Bill Clinton won the Peach State in 1992. Republican State Leadership Committee President Austin Chambers warns that Georgia is indeed in play:
“Georgia is absolutely at risk for Republicans in 2020 — up and down the ballot, everything is in play. The data from previous elections shows this. It didn’t happen overnight — Democrats have been making gains for years in Georgia.”
The news is also bad for Trump in Arizona, where polling shows Biden ahead. Democrats flipped four statewide races in 2018 are eager to prove their momentum can be carried forward to the presidential race, too.
And then there’s the Rust Belt, where Trump managed to break the famed Democratic “blue wall” by picking off Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin four years ago. This time, however, those same states don’t look nearly as good for the incumbent, especially with the economy in the doldrums.
African-American turnout is the key to Michigan, and Democrats will be focusing on getting their voters to the polls. Already, some GOP candidates in the state are distancing themselves from Trump:
“In one sign of Trump’s vulnerability in the state, Republican Senate candidate John James made clear during an online video conference with black community leaders last month that he disagreed with Trump on an array of issues.”
If Biden is able to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin while also cherry-picking states such as Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Trump will have no way to get to 270 electoral votes. And that could also spell doom for other Republicans, especially if Biden winds up having coattails and can get the Obama coalition of voters to the polls on Election Day.
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