Could the 2020 election matchup between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden wind up being largely anticlimactic, with one of the candidates winning a clear and convincing victory that would give him a mandate?
According to CNN elections expert Harry Enten, Biden appears poised for a “blowout” win over Trump, and he bases his prediction on recent polling, especially in the state of Minnesota, which was supposed to be competitive:
“A new ABC News/Washington Post poll from Minnesota finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 57% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters.
“Two other Minnesota polls released over the last few weeks by CBS News/YouGov and New York Times/Siena College have Biden up by nine points.
“The Trump campaign has made a significant investment into turning Minnesota red, after Trump lost it by 1.5 points in 2016. The polling shows his efforts are not working.
“They are part of a larger sign suggesting that Trump still has a ways to go to win not just in Minnesota but over the electoral map at-large. If his campaign was truly competitive at this point, he’d likely be closer in Minnesota.”
Granted, there are still 43 days until the election, Enten concedes, but while it’s safe to say that Trump could still close the gap between him and Biden, there’s also another possibility, and it doesn’t bode well for the incumbent:
“There is also the distinct possibility that Biden blows Trump out. It’s something I’ve noted before, and the Washington Post’s David Byler pointed out a few weeks ago.
“If you were to look at the polling right now, there’s a pretty clear picture. Biden has leads of somewhere between five and eight points in a number of states Trump won four years ago: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those plus the states Hillary Clinton won get Biden to about 290 electoral votes.
“If you add on the other states where Biden has at least a nominal edge in the averages (Florida and North Carolina), Biden is above 330 electoral votes.”
Even more troubling for the Trump campaign are the polls from states where he should be comfortably ahead. States like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. The very fact that a deep red state like Texas is still in play must have Trump’s top campaign officials terrified. If he’s having trouble winning Texas, he could be toast in a state such as Georgia:
“It’s quite possible (Biden is) actually up in either Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, and we just don’t know it because there isn’t enough fresh data. For example, Clinton only lost in Georgia by five points in 2016, and Biden’s doing about five points better in the national polls than she did in the final vote. It would make sense, therefore, that Biden’s quite close to Trump there at this point.”
The bottom line: If Democrats show up and vote, Biden will win and win big. No wonder Trump is so anxious.
Featured Image Via NBC News