Imagine for just a moment is the evening of November 3 and election returns start to trickle in. Suddenly, just after 9 or 10 p.m. on the East coast, an announcement comes across your television screen or cell phone that reads: JOE BIDEN WINS TEXAS IN STUNNING UPSET.
Sound farfetched? It might have been in past years, but 2020 could wind up being the first time a Democratic presidential candidate wins the Lone Star state since Jimmy Carter last did so in 1976.
A new poll from the Dallas Morning News released on Sunday shows Biden leading Trump in Texas 48 to 45 percent among likely voters, with Hispanic and independent voters breaking for Biden in the closing days of the race. Trump’s feckless response to the coronavirus pandemic is also hurting him with voters.
51 percent of independents say they support Biden, with only 29 percent of that same group saying they support Trump. And 69 percent of Hispanics say they will be voting for the former vice president, with only 21 percent saying they will support Trump.
Coronavirus remains the main concern of voters in Texas, and Trump’s handling of the pandemic is increasingly seen as a failure:
“In September, 32% of Texans said they had no confidence in Trump’s ability to keep communities safe from the coronavirus pandemic, Owens noted. Today, 44% voice that sentiment. Trump, though, still has the advantage as the candidate Texans believe would handle the economy best.”
The gains Biden has made in just over a month, combined with the early voting totals being seen in Texas suggest voters are paying attention and are energized about deciding who will be head of state over the next four years. And some of the results in the Dallas Morning News poll also have some very troubling news for the incumbent president:
“In the September poll, Biden was ahead among independents, 46-37. But in the latest survey, completed Tuesday, Biden’s edge among independents grew to 51-29. They make up 27% of likely voters.
“’Biden wouldn’t be my first choice to get to cast a vote for, to be honest,’ said Hayley Dyer, 32, an independent voter. ‘But I would rather vote for anyone than to vote for Donald Trump.'”
Texas has 38 electoral votes, and if indeed Biden manages to win the state, Trump would have almost no path to reelection, even if he carries Florida.
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